Ariely and Carmon present this finding as corroboration of what is known as the endowment effect. Once someone owns something, once it is theirs, they value it more. This is closely allied to another effect beloved of behavioural economists — loss aversion. People much prefer avoiding losses to making gains.It has no real purpose or impact on my day-to-day life, but I found it interesting, all the same.
Wednesday 19 August 2009
loss aversion theory
Just pulled out this little factoid from an article concerning the NHS-bashing of American right-wingers:
Wednesday 12 August 2009
Premier League - Top 6/Bottom 6 predictions
Despite the naysayers whinging every year that the Premier League is boring and predictable, I think that this season promises to be a classic, with the top 3 from last season (Liverpool, Manchester United and Chelsea) very evenly matched, and with the added bonus of a sub-plot on the second tier of teams in the fight for the 4th Champions League place.
It's difficult to pick the champions this year, as both Manchester United and Liverpool seem to have been weakened by the loss of some of their key players, and their replacements not being of an equal value. Chelsea have not had the same problem, but they do have a new manager, so it remains to be seen whether he is a Scolari or a Hiddink, and whether he can get the team to gel together and play in the style that he wants straight from the off.
In the fight for the 4th spot, my heart says Arsenal, but Manchester City have spent mega-bucks over the summer, and seem set to continue that splurge right up to the end of the transfer window. They do have a habit of fucking themselves over, but they have bought enough class to be real challengers for that champions league place. Everton could also be there or thereabouts as well - they were very strong in the 2nd half of last season, and that should continue. I expect the fight to be very very tight - a couple of points will separate 4th and 5th.
Down at the other end, I think that Portsmouth will go down - boardroom chaos generally filters through to the pitch, they have sold most of their better players already, with the rest of them looking like they will be leaving soon as well.
You'd generally save the other two relegation places for newly promoted sides, but I think this year will be different - Hull were dreadful after Christmas last season, and I just can't see them picking up the 25 or so points in the first half of the season that they did last season. That leaves one spot left, which will be filled by either Wolves or Burnley. The latter gave a couple of Premier League sides a bloody nose in the cups last season, but doing that week in and week out is a different prospect. Wolves at least have some experience of what is required in the Premier League, so think they'll scrape marginally more points than the other sides down there.
Predictions Top Six:
Predictions (Bottom Six):
15. Bolton
16. Wigan
17. Wolves
18. Hull
19. Burnley
20. Portsmouth
It's difficult to pick the champions this year, as both Manchester United and Liverpool seem to have been weakened by the loss of some of their key players, and their replacements not being of an equal value. Chelsea have not had the same problem, but they do have a new manager, so it remains to be seen whether he is a Scolari or a Hiddink, and whether he can get the team to gel together and play in the style that he wants straight from the off.
In the fight for the 4th spot, my heart says Arsenal, but Manchester City have spent mega-bucks over the summer, and seem set to continue that splurge right up to the end of the transfer window. They do have a habit of fucking themselves over, but they have bought enough class to be real challengers for that champions league place. Everton could also be there or thereabouts as well - they were very strong in the 2nd half of last season, and that should continue. I expect the fight to be very very tight - a couple of points will separate 4th and 5th.
Down at the other end, I think that Portsmouth will go down - boardroom chaos generally filters through to the pitch, they have sold most of their better players already, with the rest of them looking like they will be leaving soon as well.
You'd generally save the other two relegation places for newly promoted sides, but I think this year will be different - Hull were dreadful after Christmas last season, and I just can't see them picking up the 25 or so points in the first half of the season that they did last season. That leaves one spot left, which will be filled by either Wolves or Burnley. The latter gave a couple of Premier League sides a bloody nose in the cups last season, but doing that week in and week out is a different prospect. Wolves at least have some experience of what is required in the Premier League, so think they'll scrape marginally more points than the other sides down there.
Predictions Top Six:
- Chelsea
- Manchester United
- Liverpool
- Arsenal (please please please)
- Manchester City
- Everton
Predictions (Bottom Six):
15. Bolton
16. Wigan
17. Wolves
18. Hull
19. Burnley
20. Portsmouth
Thursday 6 August 2009
teletext update
Following on from my previous post about ceefax and teletext finally ending comes an enchanting piece in the guardian (yes yes, i know).
Actually, it's not the piece that I like, but the comments underneath, which provide me with relief and sense of shared history with all those people - crazy to think that so many people had the same ritual as me.
Actually, it's not the piece that I like, but the comments underneath, which provide me with relief and sense of shared history with all those people - crazy to think that so many people had the same ritual as me.
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